BTC Trading Record Review: This Is a Classic "Hunter" Constitution

Through a sliding window (N=20) analysis of 2022 BTC-USDT-SWAP data, this guy's cards are basically all on the table. He didn't get rich by "predicting"—he ground it out in the market with extreme odds.

1. Core Data: "Brutal" Odds Under a Low Win Rate

Look at this win-rate chart. Most of the time, this guy's win rate is absurdly low, often hovering below 30% or even 20%. Put plainly, 7-8 out of every 10 trades he opens get stopped out.

But the reason he survives and makes big money is entirely the profit/loss ratio curve. His sliding profit/loss ratio often stretches to between 4.0 and 6.0.

• In plain terms: He's constantly using small stop-losses to "test" direction. As long as he catches one decent trend, he holds it to the end, using one big win to cover all the previous trial-and-error costs.

2. Market Fit: Making Money All Depends on "Timing"

Stack the two charts together and the profit logic is very clear:

• Feast periods (e.g., early August, early November): Win rate rebounds to around 50%, and the profit/loss ratio explodes in tandem. This is a "Davis double play" where strategy and market are highly aligned, meaning there was a very smooth one-sided move at the time.
• Beating periods (e.g., mid-June, mid-October): Both win rate and profit/loss ratio are "double low." During these stretches he's just giving money to the market, constantly getting slapped around by choppy conditions. But what's impressive is that he somehow didn't lose all his capital during these periods.

3. Player Profile: A Cold-Blooded Execution Machine

If an ordinary person had only 4 winners out of 20 consecutive trades, their mentality would have blown up long ago—either they'd start gambling with heavy positions, or they simply wouldn't dare place orders. But this guy, even when his win rate falls into a "deep pit," still maintains his original pace of opening positions until he grinds through to that big November move. This kind of mental toughness and discipline is his widest moat.

4. Practical Summary and Warnings

• Don't chase highs: When you see his profit/loss ratio spike to 6.0 and his win rate break above 50%, that's often when the strategy is hottest and closest to the "fish tail." What follows is most likely a long grinding period.
• Watch the troughs: If for a stretch his win rate is extremely low and his profit/loss ratio is stuck below 1.0, as long as drawdown hasn't spiraled out of control, that's actually the time to pay close attention to him—because according to mean reversion, the next big trend feast may be about to hit the table.

5. Conclusion

This is a standard trend catcher. He wins by "holding on," and dies in "choppy markets." To follow this style, you first have to ask yourself whether your heart is big enough, and whether you can endure that dark stretch of consecutive losses with him.